[GJM] *Is Peak Coal Next? <http://www.richardheinberg.com/museletter/179>*

[marguerite hampton]

Thanks to SnyEarth for this information.  

 As the messages of resource depletion, the onset of global climate change,
and economic collapse continue to accumulate, pointing to serious 
consequences far sooner than anyone ever anticipated, we are faced with 
the challenge of becoming more and more creative in order to meet the
challenges of the situations at hand. 

It appears that in order to bring about some sort of order, we need
to know the accurate state of the world's resources.  Imagine trying to run 
a business without an accurate inventory.  However, quite probably the only 
way to accomplish this (with a small margin of error) is for people in
communities
within bioregions to inventory their own region.  And then compile the info
via the Internet into data banks readily accessible to anyone with a "need
to know". This was a suggestion made by Buckminster Fuller in his book 
Critical Path.  The suggestion was further extended by former astronaught 
Sally Ride, and as exposed in Al Gore's book : "Earth in the Balance". 
Looking down from space at our small earth, Ride saw the need for small 
community groups to begin gathering information at the community level 
and making it available via the Internet.

Based on Fuller's insights, and later on reinforced by Ride's insights,
in association with the Hands Across the Border: Operation Lifesave 
proposal (of which I was the major author designer) we came up with 
the idea for Community Learning and Information Centers as a means 
of creating a distribution channel for valid information while at the same 
time, creating an information gathering channel.  .   

An organization such as a CLIC is necessary at the community 
level to act as a place where "experiential learning may take 
place" as those most familiar with the nuances of their particular 
ecosystem come together as "Co-learner's"  to acquire new 
knowledge, share old knowledge, integrate it and apply it in the 
most effective and efficient manner possible, so that each eco-system 
is working at peak efficiency -- thus resusitating our life support 
system so that it can sustain life once again. Our conventional 
educational system is simply inadequate to meet the complex 
challenges which lie before us at this "unprecedented time in 
human recorded history" as it is directed toward providing 
workers for industry for the "capital-intensive" society.   

In order to maintain a capital-intensive society, the need is for 
continual growth at any cost to the environment or the human
family.  In creating  a sustainable living society, the need is to 
create as light a footprint upon the earth as is humanely possible. 
Money-making, as the bottom line factor driving the economy, 
cannot be a factor in creating sustainable living communities.      

While Bill Ellis has been working for many years to aid in 
establishing "learning centers" I do believe that the words 
"information centers" are important to this concept as well as the 
importance of "data gathering"  and dissemination (in such as way 
as to create a feedback loop) is critical with regard to the 
management of resources and resource depletion issues since 
"inventory" statistics are a prime factor in creating and maintaining 
both individual wellness and sustainable living communities.  .

It is imperative that we organize and prepare at the community 
level to meet these unprecedented challenges.  Government as
owned by the corporations and based in a capital-intensive 
society cannot do this for us -- it is in direct opposition to 
sustainability.  

marguerite 



*Is Peak Coal Next? <http://www.richardheinberg.com/museletter/179>*
 
[image: Richard Heinberg]Richard Heinberg writes: A soon-to-be-released
study by the Energy Watch Group in Germany on the future of global coal
supplies has implications so surprising and far-reaching that energy
policymakers may take years to digest it. This essay is intended to help
speed that process. The report's central conclusions are that minable global
coal reserves are much smaller than is commonly thought, and that a peak in
world coal production is likely within only ten to fifteen years. ...
 
About 90% of coal reserves are concentrated in 6 countries: USA, Russia,
India, China, Australia and South Africa. The USA alone holds 30% and is the
second largest producer. China is by far the largest producer but contains
only half of the reserves of the USA. Therefore the development of these two
countries is a key for future coal production.
 
However, the report's authors (Werner Zittel and Jörg Schindler) are of the
opinion that "the data quality is very unreliable," especially for China,
South Asia, and the Former Soviet Union countries. Some nations (such as
Vietnam) have not updated their "proved reserves" for decades, in some
instances not since the 1960s. China's last update was in 1992; since then,
20 percent of its reserves have been consumed, though this is not revealed
in its official figures.
 
Even more striking is the fact that since 1986 all nations with significant
coal resources (excepting India and Australia) that have made the effort to
update their reserves estimates have reported substantial downward resource
revisions. Some countries—including Botswana, Germany, and the UK—have
downgraded their reserves by more than 90 percent. ...
 
if society finds steep voluntary cuts in the use of coal and other fossil
fuels to be economically onerous, there is really no alternative: declines
in production will happen anyway, so it is better to cut use proactively and
systematically than wait and be faced with shortages and price volatility
later. The findings of the 2005 DOE-funded Hirsch report ("Peak of World Oil
Production: Impacts, Mitigation and Risk Management") regarding society's
vulnerability to peak oil apply also to peak coal: time will be needed in
order for society to adapt proactively to a resource-constrained
environment. A failure to begin now to reduce reliance on coal will mean
much greater economic hardship when the peak arrives. ...
 
Given the nature of its findings, the EWG coal report should be regarded
with utmost seriousness. Those findings must be examined carefully and
checked against other studies (I am aware of a similar study under way in
the Netherlands; as soon as it is available I plan to write a follow-up
article to compare its results with those of the EWG). If the data and
analysis described here hold up, the implications must be faced. World
energy will begin to decline very soon, and there probably is no supply-side
fix. The most important policies will be ones that have to do with proactive
energy curtailment and systemic societal adjustment to lower consumption
levels. Those policies will necessarily impact agriculture, transport,
trade, urban design, and national electrical grid systems—and everything
dependent on them, including global telecommunications.
 
In other publications I have advocated a Depletion Protocol for oil as a
policy tool to enable societies to better adapt to the impending peak in
global petroleum production. Depletion protocols for gas and coal, while not
as critical (since these fuels are not traded globally to the same extent as
oil), could also help with the difficult process of adaptation. Nations that
are currently dependent on coal—China and the U.S. especially—would be wise
to begin reducing consumption now, not only in the interests of climate
protection, but also to reduce societal vulnerability arising from
dependence on a resource that will soon begin to become more scarce and
expensive. (03/26/07)